Archive for the ‘Global Information’ Category

Several years ago I read The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin.  In his book, Rifkin outlined a future filled with too many people and too little work to be done. The premise was that we’d be so technologically advanced that there would be little work left for people to do, resulting in a shift in how we spend our daily lives.

In as much as we’re still very far off from this prediction, there still lies the truth that in the United States we are going to be facing a different challenge along the same line of thinking. It’s not that were going to run out of work but given the transformational change of “hands-on business functions,” there will be a type of End of Work. This will be a type of work that fulfills the needs of those who want to work with their hands and don’t have the same inclination to spend time being schooled.

An example is the farmer who no longer uses horses  to plow his fields but who uses a GPS-guided machine in which he can actually watch TV while the equipment does the work. Even the painter will work differently due to increased efficiency of painting tools and/or paints that last 5 years longer due to nanotechnology. The machinist will be replaced by a robotic system.

It’s these people, with this propensity to lean towards truly hands-on jobs that I started thinking about while working with Mike, my painter, a couple of years ago. We met somewhat by chance while I touched up the paint on my home and Mike and his son were in a car driving down our street looking for some work. We spoke for a few minutes and they ended up quoting a price to paint the entire exterior of our home.

As you might have guessed the price was right and from what I heard it appeared they had worked with some pretty reputable firms. After about 20 minutes, I agreed to the terms and they promised they would start the very next morning.

Yes, I did have the thought they might not show, and they might do a poor job since they were traveling around handing out fliers.
I was happy with my decision. Mike Sr. and Mike Jr. showed up the very next morning at 9 AM as promised ready to work.  They were professional in their demeanor and in the quality of their work.

What I witnessed were two guys who loved working with their hands. Mike Sr. had been painting most of his life and possessed a sort of pride I wished many office employees and managers would have. Mike Jr. was the apple that didn’t fall far from the tree. Often I’d see him step back from his work, look at what he’d done from two or three different angles and then proceed. Even his business card defines his philosophy. It says, “Picture Perfect,” and his interpretation is that when he’s done with a job, you’d want to take a picture of it.

The truth is, Mike and Mike love working with their hands.

I thought about the pair along with all the other craftsman, mechanics, and stone workers I know, and I realized we will have a challenge different than the one discussed in public. The challenge is one that is not about further educating our population so that people can have jobs. It’s about giving people choices so they can make a living at a reasonable pay scale and still be who they want to be. It’s not about jobs being shipped off shore given that many of those jobs are at low paying wages that most likely will be eliminated in their future as automation envelopes the economies that have chosen to be the next outsourcing country.

It’s about people.

What do we do with Mike Sr. and Mike Jr.? What does the individual who has no interest in working in an office do? What is their future?

Quite honestly, I’m not sure that manual labor or manufacturing will change not because of “evil” executives but because technology will replace manual tasks as it’s the nature of automation to remove people to drive down costs, increase efficiency, and improve products and service experiences. There’s no stopping it.

Just imagine having no computers in your accounting department, and you get a sense of what I mean. No computers? You may have 74 people to do the work of just a dozen. No computers may mean that JIT and inventory replenishment grind to a halt.

Here’s my long shot.

What’s on my mind.

Mike and Mike will continue to exist; it’s just that we need to:

1. Channel other activities that can create the same stimulation in our culture. Mike needs to swing a hammer at home.

2. Give opportunities to those that can work with their hands to do the same, utilizing tools such as virtual reality systems. I know the heavy equipment operator loves the power of the machine even though he or she is using levers and not their hands to accomplish the same task.

3. Leverage the feeling of accomplishment in other areas such as taking the creative hands-on feel and translating it to outdoor activities on a global scale where these individuals find themselves working in South America, Central America, or other parts of the world where technology and hands on co-exist for now.

4. We need to balance life work so that those that would prefer the other can do it on their own time.

Nothing brilliant in the above. I’d just like you to be thinking about the ramifications of losing our hands-on worker who’s not interested in the corporate life style to be productive. Yes, they will learn to use the current technologies to do their work. More importantly, we need to insure that they don’t get lost. This is a challenge that can be overcome if we not only address the need for continuous learning but address the issue of choice. Otherwise, our oversight is going to run over the US workforce like a steam roller.

Our problem is not our problem.

Courtesy of Vincent Callebaut Architecture in Paris are renditions of future living communities to be potentially built in Dubai.  These “Lilypad” cities rise and fall with the tides.  Interesting considering that experts estimate that water levels will sink coastal land.

The cities will be self sufficient, generate their own power from sun, water and wind while producing zero emissions.  Each city will house 50,000 people, have gardens, walkways, and streets.  Water will be caught in central lakes and then filtered.

Estimated completion date…..at least 90 years from now.  If global warming does raise water levels we may see them sooner than we expect.

In the post-internet boom, the world witnessed a transformation of working arrangements.  Foreign employees of firms such as IBM were laid off only to find themselves returning back to their home counties to live once again.  When business volume increased, employees who were still working knew that they had a friend who used to be in the business who now lived overseas.  Given the cost of living difference, the past employee said, I’ll do the work in my home country and charge you a different rate.  Due to the connective digital lines under the ocean, the work could be easily completed.

We’re now seeing a similar condition, only the employees who are either being asked to work from home or are being laid off live down the street.  Just picture a similar scenario happening all over again, however slightly differently.  Firms such as Nissan Motors are asking employees to work from home because their physical building is too costly to operate.  With advancements in video, audio and virtual private networks, the same individual no longer will have a tangible office to return to.  They are now part of the virtual workforce.

Those laid off will face a similar scenario to the post-internet boom. “Carol has been laid off and already knows our business.  No need to re-hire her.  Let’s see if she will do this job as a part-time, outsourced employee?”  With the rise in unemployment rates and the likelihood that many people will be out of work for a long stretch of time, employees like Carol might jump at the chance to earn income once again, even as a part-timer home-based employee, forever changing working relationships and conditions.

The outsourced and virtual company is no more than a decade away.  Add some holographic meeting space, and we’re going to see this type of dispersed work structure as more common, because of the recession…depression.

As the global recession spreads, so, too, will more decision makers  move employees from physical offices into virtual work-at-home offices.  The trend will mimic that of the post-internet boom in the early 2000′s.

July 15, 2008
TODAY IN MANUFACTURING.NET
“GM ANNOUNCES MAJOR SHAKEUP — Automaker will lay off salaried workers, cut truck production, suspend its dividend and borrow $2 billion to $3 billion to weather a severe downturn in the U.S. market.”

That was last year, and what I had to say about it then–see below – written July 2008–is even more relevant today.

To me, while Honda and Toyota appear to be selling cars, GM, Chrysler and Ford continually make announcements about restructuring, slow sales volume, economic challenges. In all these reports I fail to see anyone taking responsibility for being globally blind.

Or should I say American Blind. Blind to the truth that while the Detroit Three were ramping up large truck sales the rest of the world sees a much different picture. China and India with over 2+ billion people are on the verge of the transportation age where individuals could purchase cars as a middle class. Gas in all countries except the US, even prior to the rise in fuel costs, was significantly higher than the US. And while Americans were doing well, there should be a transition in the next decade to smaller vehicles just because those having children will be empty nesters along with a very large senior population. Mind you small is relative as American most likely will opt for a “larger” smaller vehicle.

All these signs, as powerful as they are to everyone today, should have been seen by those in management of the automakers.

Toyota saw the writing on the wall when they, over 10 years ago, committed to producing fuel efficient cars. Toyota, understood this as they announced one of the cheapest cars on the planet realizing that even though India and China are growing, the vast majority of the people who live on this planet still don’t own cars AND that the cars they will be able to afford will be smaller.  TATA, an Indian firm, has been working on the introduction of a $2000 vehicle to target this market along with other developing markets.

Think Africa, think Malaysia, think Pakistan….

Even the poorest WORKING Americans earn more than 90% of the world’s population. I’ve heard numbers that if you earn over $20,000 US you are in the top 3% of the world so now picture car purchases in the near future.

The point to all this is that we’ve been a global world for a long time, not just in recent years. The ability to see beyond the four walls of the US should be on the minds of everyone who is Paid to Think™  in the US. Thinking about how in the near future, the inter-connectivity will exacerbate economic decisions. That those who still believe that by sticking one’s head in the ground or those who’s perceptions of others with different color skin and different beliefs are beneath themselves, so much so that their ignorance or lack of vision, will ultimately cause create bad decisions and eventually create other Big Threes.

There is a land of opportunity, just don’t be blind to the global possibilities.

A Director at Siemens, one of the few windmill manufacturers in the world that supplies those huge 144-foot fins unused on large-scale wind farms, recently told me that just as the finishing touches on a manufacturing plant were completed, their sales blew through the roof  so much so that they already had overgrown the facility.

My first thought was is this connected to the problems related with India’s Suzion Energy’s troubles with stress fractures.  One of Suzion’s several customers,  Edison Mission Energy, has had stress fractures.  In Edison’s case, over 1251 blades were recalled.  If consider how the blades are 144 feet long and must be hoisted over two hundred feet in the air to be installed or removed, you can imagine that this is a costly problem for both manufacturer and customer.

The end result would be, since this is public news, that other prospects would most likely choose another vendor and contracts for production would be canceled.  Add to this the down time associated with such a fiasco since no energy is being produced.

So I asked, “Was this related to the blade recalls from the Indian company?”  He hadn’t heard anything about the troubled firm.

My thoughts are simple on this. Part of the role of management is to be aware of key issues related to your industry, markets or future.

In this case, this Director was not responsible for marketing, sales, or engineering, but he was responsible for Asset Management.  His role is to search for or build new facilities to meet corporate initiatives. As part of his portfolio he might have 200 real estate assets he’s managing besides building new facilities. So it would be easy to say, he’s only responsible for the physical asset.  And if he does this right, he’s done his job.

People who are Enterprise Thinkers and are Paid to Think, think beyond the normal and realize they must at least be aware of any happenings that pertain to their job and beyond, as well as what might impact their future.  They see the 50,000 foot view and realize they are not hired to just build a plant but to build a plant that takes advantage of today’s business and the firm’s future.

In this case, when a major supplier has a recall, you’ve got to bet that other customers could be canceling orders and shifting suppliers, which is exactly what happened.

Here are a few ways he could be “Aware.”

Set up a Google Alert for the industry key words.  I for example have the words “Paid to Think,” “Enterprise Thinking” and a host of other topics or phrases I’d like to get reports on regularly.

Another source is to subscribe to industry publications that would highlight such issues.  In this case, this was a multi-million dollar facility that casts fins with fiberglass, balsa wood, and a binder.  Yes, I too was surprised to find the balsa wood is in the fins.

Lastly, for a few dollars a month, he could hire researchers to keep him posted on any topics related to this project.  There are PhDs in India, China, Ukraine, and Argentina that will work for very little as a resource.

Just being aware of what’s happening could easily have changed the future of Siemens’ project plants; even if they made the decision not to do anything, this would have been a result of being informed.

Sources Siemens Windmills and WSJ  India Windmill Empire Begins to Show Cracks

Ask who lit the first match that ignited this wild storm called recession, and the answer is as different as the people doing the answering. That can pose huge challenges when leadership is called to help solve the issue.

Leadership is about getting others to pursue an objective in some form of unity.  The higher the unity, along with other tools and methodologies, the faster the goals will be achieved.  The challenge is that everyone does have their own beliefs and expectations, and sometimes these expectations get in the way of any progress.

A native-Pakistani taxi driver that once drove me to a hotel said, “All around the world the people at the top of government are all corrupt, especially in Arab and Muslim countries.”  He went on to describe how in his home country of Pakistan, those currently in power are those that stole money under the last administration.  He then went on to say that the “Media never tells the truth.”

A member of a North Carolina Governing Board of a University says, “The trouble with the economy is that we have too much capacity, and when we have too much capacity, we have a recession until the capacity decreases.  This means businesses must go out of business to make this happen.”  When I asked about productivity and technological advances that may make the absorption of employees back into the system difficult, he said productivity has nothing to do with it.

Both different people having different perspectives as to how the US and global recession started and will continue.

As a leader, in politics, business, or organizations, the trouble is that the objective is not to just sell your ideas, but to realize that another person’s perception is reality, and you must understand their position before you can start to change perception.

An important consideration is that you, too, have an opinion so we must all be tolerant while we press forward.

Quite some time ago, prior to the global recession, I signed up for an email alert system from manufacturing.net where they send to me current news on the manufacturing sector.  What I’ve loved about the system is that during these past few months, I’ve seen both sides of the layoff situation and the potential solutions, and they’re being provided in a non-judgmental forum.  I get just the news…globally.

For example, in the posting below, the report notes global concerns in Italy & Germany.  The writers could have easily talked about green initiatives or what’s going on within the business.  They did not.

Italy Paying New Car Buyers $1,900
Manufacturing.Net – February 06, 2009

Mikkel Viesergaard has hit upon a very simple idea called the Life Straw. Life Straw is a product that filters out 100% of the bacteria and 99% of the viruses from tainted drinking water for those whose lives are typically in underdeveloped countries.The straw is used like an ordinary straw with the exception of a filter designed to remove “toxins” to humans that typically induce diarrhea. Harmful bacteria and viruses are a medical concern because they’re killing 6,000 people per day. I’m betting this number does not influence other diseases that are a result of not having fresh water or those conditions where dehydration causes someone to be susceptible to other diseases.

The products range from $4US to $15US and allow a family to drink for a year out of one straw. The personal model filters a minimum of 700 liters or 84 gallons, while the family version filters a minimum of 15,000 liters or 3962 gallons of water.

Pretty incredible. So the next time you’re trying to be creative, realize the answer might be in your hands.

Check out our blog on the Snake Well Technology: a similar conclusion.

Some facts from the Life Straw website:

• More than one billion people in the world do not have access to safe drinking water – i.e. around 1/6th of the world’s population. (Source: Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council)

• The average distance that women in Africa and Asia walk to collect water is 6 km. (Source: Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council)

• The average weight of water that women in Africa and Asia carry on their heads can be anything up to 20kg – the equivalent of your airport luggage allowance. (Source: Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council)

• Diarrhea kills over 1.8 million people per year and chronic diarrhea is a leading killer of people with AIDS. (Source: World Health Organization)

• In Africa, diarrhea is four times more common among children with HIV and seven times more common among adults with HIV than their HIV-negative household members. (Source: Mermin J, et al.)

• Diarrhea affects up to 90% of HIV patients. (Source: Bartlett JG, et al.)
  

• Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected children.(Source: PEPFAR)

• “In a study among HIV-infected persons in Uganda, use of safe water decreased diarrhea-type illness by 36 percent”. (The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief)

“Why study the stars? They all look the same to me.”

Ascribed to an apprentice of Galileo

Makes one wonder how often assumptions are made that in retrospect, are self limiting.

I recently realized that my sunglasses had lost one of those nose holders that make the glasses sit comfortably. Having never lost one before, I thought I’d visit my local optometrist’s office down the street for the repair work.

When I entered the store, the lady behind counter looked up and asked how she could help.  While handing her the glasses, I explained that I lost nose piece and asked if I could get a replacement.  I considered the repair would be fairly simple.

I was told that Prada glasses have a special fitting and that the optometrist would need to see the glasses to determine if they’d need to special order the part.  He was to be in on the following Monday.  I left feeling a little cheated by Prada for making a specialty nose clip and by the store, since I believe the person who helped me should have been able to check inventory.

A few days later my son and I decided that a quick unscheduled trip to fly to NY City would be a lot of fun; plus I could also catch up with a group of friends from Camp Idylwold who were going to meet at the US Open.

Jake and I arrived the day before so that we could visit the Museum of Natural History, eat in Little Italy, and tour the Alex Beard Studio in Soho.  On our return walk to the hotel, I spotted a Sunglass Hut and thought just maybe they could help, because I had purchased the glasses at a Sunglass Hut in Rockefeller Center.  The lady I met looked at the glasses and said I should stop down at the Lenscrafters around the corner on West Broadway.

There I was met by Delcia who, upon first glimpse of the glasses, told me this was an easy fix and the cost would be $10.  She warned me that I would not have a Prada nose piece set but one of another brand.  I thought to myself, who cares!   She motioned for us to sit at one of the counters as she opened a box with enough nose pieces to fit every pair of glasses for an entire office building in Manhattan.

We selected two options and then she replaced the old with a completely new set all the while handing the glasses as if they were the most valuable item I could own.  Within minutes, the noes pieces were on and we started to do the micro adjustments to get the correct angles.

She asked, “These are a gorgeous pair of glasses. I’ve not seen anything similar. Where did you get them?”

I told her the Sunglass Hut uptown near 5th Avenue.  Little did I know that these were the magic words.  I had no clue that Luxottica owned and managed the Sunglass Huts, Lenscrafters and managed the optical units in Macy’s, Target, Sears, and BJ’s.

Luxottica Group out of Milan Italy.

“It is a global leader in eyewear, with nearly 5,800 optical and sun retail stores in North America, Asia-Pacific, China and Europe and a strong brand portfolio that includes Ray-Ban, the world’s best selling sun and prescription eyewear brand in the world, as well as, among others, license brands Bvlgari, Burberry, Chanel, Dolce & Gabbana, Donna Karan, Prada, Versace and Polo Ralph Lauren, beginning January 2007, and key house brands: Vogue, Persol, Arnette and REVO.

In addition to an extensive global network, the Group manages leading retail brands such as LensCrafters and Pearle Vision in North America, OPSM and Laubman & Pank in Asia-Pacific and Sunglass Hut globally.
The Group’s products are designed and manufactured in six Italy-based high-quality manufacturing plants and in the only two China-based plants wholly-owned by a premium eyewear manufacturer”

Luxottica Site

Having purchased the glasses from another part of the company there was no charge!

I left the shop talking to myself.

1.  If this shop could have filled my need why couldn’t the optician shop down the street?  Bad move on their behalf given that I most likley won’t return.
2.  Delcia did a wonderful job at servicing my glasses.  So well that I felt as if my eyecare and my purchase were a top priority.
3.  Sometime what we see is not what’s happening in the background.  Retailers turned to an expert to take care of their eyewear service needs and leveraged a $7.3B in revenue, completely verticle company to make doing business easier.
4. Smart companies know when to outsource and outsourcing does not always mean overseas or doing only unseen activities.  Sometimes they are a company’s first point of contact such as livechat or call center activies.
5.  My glasses look and feel great!