Ever been in a position where you’ve gotten a rude awaking when you’ve realized that a thought you believed to be truth really wasn’t? For example, an international executive was given the responsibility of developing future leaders for his organization that reached all around the globe. His primary focus was to develop project managers to fill the soon-to-be-left talent gap in executive management.
His approach was to create a school tied to a major university and then start the education process. The pool of students necessary to fill the gap according to his calculations was 19, and the time frame 2-3 years. The students were drawn from one Florida campus.
He couldn’t be more wrong.
Let’s work out some statistics.
* The company manages multinational projects in every sector of the world while the smallest project is estimated at USD $75 Million.
It takes upwards of 5-10 years to train someone in the skill set.
* The individual will live in the given country for several years.
* More than half of their leadership team will retire in 10 years. The figure is estimated at 25-30 people.
Mind you these numbers were not hard to find. It took me less than a day.
Now let’s play out the thinking. Given that the training program is multi year and it takes 5-10 years to train an individual, then you’ve got to add attrition into the numbers: not only for those that can’t do it, but for those that get hired away, get sick, quit, don’t like the job, etc. The number of applicants increases by at least 4 fold or even 5 fold. The students are also only being pulled from one university for global placement. Too monochromatic! A global force would be better suited to hire people who’ve got global reach.
In Denmark, it’s unheard of that an individual won’t speak at least 3 languages and have spent time abroad-in another country, if they want to move up in management. The time span for education is too short. A two-year plan only puts them into a short tract and leaves the rest to OJT (on-the-job-training) without supervision.
The goal is wrong. The goal should be to deliver to the company 20+ fresh recruits while ALSO preparing for the next round of departures. So 30+ would be the number.
A company of this size, with this strategy, would never be able to meet the demands, and once they realize it, it’s going to be too late. Not that they won’t succeed. It’s that there will be a talent gap between what’s needed and what leadership and management can deliver.
To this end the organization might still make money, but less of it. They still might grow but management will be putting our fires all day. Recruiting will be harder and more time consuming. The list is endless, and it’s all based around the lack of a sound strategy.
Now you might think I’m being harsh however when I rolled out the numbers to the executive he said nothing. As if he’d been hit by a rock. All his assumptions were off and he’d never realized the consequences.
This lack of thinking about the importance of sound strategic and tactical thinking is not uncommon. When a writer prepares an outline they think it’s writing. It’s not. It’s strategy. What’s the book about and what options do we have to make this book happen is all strategy. When the writer starts writing the actual pages it’s now tactical. This little error in insight is huge.
When one thinks or retirement and a number jumps into their head that sounds great just because it’s large does not mean it’s really a sound target.
Try it. Take a number you’d like to have in the bank when you retire, any number that realistic. $1 Billion is not a typical number so be real. $500,000 will only give $15,000 a year return if placed in a bank. More if done wisely. How many people in the US can live on $15,000? A few minutes of thinking do so much.
Now are there other solutions to all these situations. Yes, there are tons’ of solutions such as the firm above could automate several functions that are now manual and require skills that take years to learn. Language translators will be more common in 2015 then they are today given there are already prototypes in production for the conversion of phone conversations to many of the worlds languages. 5 -10 years may be long because the past has been based on OJT and not on a more scientific model. The application process could be more rigorous or even a contract signed that for the education they will work for 5 years in the field.
Even with these numbers 19 won’t cut it.
A little time spent being aware of what’s going on and then strategizing goes a long way. Remember, you’re paid to think.
It’s a simple and yet loaded question given that many individuals who run or manage and organization have not thought through this question long enough to make a sound judgment.